Author: mungofitch

Subject: Re: sector

Date: 9/7/2012

Recommendations: 2

The thing to note is that none is consistently the best... True, but I think that`s a bit of an oversimplification. None is consistently the best with the emphasis on "consistently". No advantage of economics will show up at a year by year scale since prices are so noisy. But the advantages can still be very persistent in long term business results even if it`s not continuous in short term price results. If something is in the top 20% of industries in all rolling decades it`s worth paying attention. Unless and until you have a very good reason to think otherwise in a specific case, the smart money bets that medical devices will do better than airlines, that beer will do better than clothes, and that soap will do better than paper. When in doubt go with the "base rate" for the situation under consideration. Jim